For the past few weeks, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare's heavily leaked, yet still unconfirmed, battle royale mode has been on players' minds. At this point, announcing Modern Warfare's battle royale mode, seemingly called "Warzone," feels more like a formality than anything. Players have seen leaked Warzone gameplay, glitched into the map, and seen key art, but there's still no release date.
Rumors of when Warzone will actually release have been scattered. One of the most detailed leaks has indicated that Warzone will launch in March, with influencers supposedly being sent to behind-closed-doors gameplay sessions of the mode, which will, in turn, help Infinity Ward build up a hype cycle for the mode.
Other leaks have indicated that a Warzone launch is just days away, with some believing that Warzone could launch on February 25th with little fanfare besides a quick announcement. This would coincide with PAX East, where fans have speculated that a number of factors, including a Call of Duty booth placed with other battle royale games, indicates that a surprise announcement is the most likely method of release.
A drop on February 25th seems highly unlikely, though it is still a possibility. Apex Legends was a surprise release, with EA spending a healthy amount of money to ensure that influencers live-streamed it as soon as it came out, leading to its long-lasting success. It's possible that Infinity Ward would try and mirror that success with its own surprise drop, especially now that the mode has been heavily leaked.
Furthermore, Modern Warfare's battle royale is rumored to be available as a standalone free download, which makes the Apex Legends approach a bit more likely. Replicating that success, which saw Apex Legends contend with Fortnite for a spell, is something any company would want to achieve, and is now a proven method. Still, basing all of that off the placement of a PAX booth is loose, at best.
A mid-March release date feels much more in line with what one would expect from a triple-a video game publisher, especially given that Call of Duty is one of the most popular video game franchises in the world. Releasing next month gives Infinity Ward and Activision more time to build up hype for the mode, which means more players on day one.
The ultimate goal for Activision is to build a stable player base. A wider player base directly translates to more sales of the Modern Warfare battle pass, and likely of the full experience as well. Taking the time to bring influencers to an event, slowly releasing footage, then announcing a solid release date is the much more reasonable way to lead into a battle royale mode dropping, and one that is almost guaranteed to bring more success along with it.
So, assuming that the game will release sometime next month, what's the most likely date? It would seem to be March 10th or March 13th. March 10th falls on a Tuesday, which, in the past, has seen its fair share of Call of Duty updates. Game releases also have a tendency to fall on a Tuesday, though that has shifted a bit to Fridays in more recent years. March 13th, a Frday, would give players an entire weekend to play the game, which makes it seem a bit more likely than the 10th, but it's also Friday the 13th, so Infinity Ward and Activision may avoid it if the companies are feeling superstitious.
A release on March 10th or 13th also places Warzone comfortably between other major releases that could act as competition. DOOM Eternal is slated for March 20th, and The Division 2: Warlords of New York is set to launch on March 3rd. Those are both titles that could pull attention away from Call of Duty, as they're some of the largest shooter releases of the year, and, coincidentally, have a fair bit of overlap between player interests.
With a buffer of a week between Warzone and its competitors, Infinity Ward can attract players a bit more easily. Those that want to play DOOM will have another shooter to keep them satiated in the meantime, while Warlords of New York players will have a palette cleanser to enjoy. Other releases happening simultaneously should have less of an overlap with Modern Warfare players, which also helps make a case for mid-March.
Activision subpoenaed Reddit over leaked Warzone art to try and find who was responsible, so it's clear that the company is taking this release incredibly seriously. The fact that the company hasn't said anything official about the mode thus far does lend some credence to the surprise drop theory, but it's beginning to feel like Activision sees Warzone as a major part of its 2020 plans.
Rumor has it that the next Call of Duty game is in trouble, and Activision doesn't believe it will live up to Modern Warfare's success. That would set the company up for an underperforming quarter later this fall, which is something Activision likely wants to avoid. Right now, Activision probably sees Warzone as an early opportunity to help bolster yearly sales figures, with increased spending early on helping encourage year-over-year growth for the franchise, even if the new entry underperforms.
Warzone will happen, that much is sure, but expecting it in February is probably a bit too hopeful. A March release date, especially during the second week, makes the most sense for Activision and its interests. There have already been Warzone teases in Season 2 cinematics, so it's only a matter of time before players get their hands on the mode. While one can hope that it's sooner rather than later, a surprise release at PAX seems highly unlikely.
While this is still pure speculation, as Activision hasn't revealed anything yet, it does seem pretty likely given all the evidence from the past few months. Either way, Warzone should be an exciting addition to the game. Battle royale has been all the rage for quite some time now, and given Modern Warfare's popularity, it seems like it will attract quite a few new players to the game, especially if it is free-to-play.
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare is available now for PC, PS4, and Xbox One.